At Bar Convent London, Stephen Cooper, Insights Director for Jack Daniel’s & RTD reveals the Brown-Forman playbook for brand consistency. Cooper delivered a masterclass on navigating market volatility and macroeconomic headwinds. While we are living through a period of “everything everywhere all at once” uncertainty (economic, geopolitical, and technological) the underlying core needs of the spirits consumer remain remarkably consistent: connection, sensorial experience, authentic self-expression, and status signaling.
Stephen Cooper Presentation Transcript
Stephen Cooper (00:04) Thank you very much. The topic posed to us is: “What to watch out for in 2026?” Typically, whenever I’m asked these sorts of questions—whether about our industry or the world in general—my response is a fairly glib “same, same, but different.” I do that purposefully and intentionally to recognize that even during times of volatility, there is a lot of consistency. There are many long-term trends still driving this category.Stephen Cooper (00:31) With that sense of long-term consistency in mind, I’ll note that I work in insights, but I promise this is the only database chart I’m going to show. Thank you to my colleagues at IWSR for pulling this together. This chart looks at the long-term trend of volume per capita consumption by region around the world.Stephen Cooper (00:57) This is what I mean by the stability that still exists within this category. Despite headlines regarding volatility, long-term forces remain fairly consistent. The core needs and reasons for consumption within our category stay the same.Stephen Cooper (01:25) People are still entering our category because they want that rich sensorial experience—that moment of quality indulgence. They still leverage our category to say something about themselves; to signal their status, their maturity, and their development. That remains key. What also remains critical is the role of our category in fueling connections.Stephen Cooper (01:54) This has been the bedrock of our category for not just decades or centuries, but perhaps millennia. Imbibing during those moments of people coming together—connecting, forming communities—remains critical. There is also the avenue for excitement and discovery: the opportunity to find new categories, new trends, new experiences, new brands, and new places to connect with people.Stephen Cooper (02:21) Again, this remains a core and consistent need. Finally, there is authentic self-expression. This isn’t just signaling status to others, but giving people a window into what you’re all about, what you care about, and what values you hold dear. We are one of those categories people turn to for that signal. These needs remain available to us as we think about brand building in times of volatility.Stephen Cooper (02:51) What also remains broadly consistent at a macro level—not just why people drink, but when and where they drink—are the core macro occasions. I’m not going to explain all of these, but there are obviously some shifts happening.Stephen Cooper (03:15) More and more, those moments are trending away from high-energy hedonistic occasions toward low-energy moments of connection and relaxation. Long-term shifts continue toward consumption earlier in the evening, more at home, and through connections rather than hedonism. That is not a recent trend; it is a long-term shift that helps explain the graph I showed at the start.Stephen Cooper (03:46) So, if why and where people consume remains broadly consistent, what is happening? Well, this is what I call my “NSS” chart. Apologies if I’m not meant to swear for the recording, but: “No Shit, Sherlock.” This is a period of volatility and complexity, not just within our industry, but within the world at large. We are in a climate right now epitomized by uncertainty.Stephen Cooper (04:21) Again, if I went back to that chart at the start, I challenge anyone in this room to find a period over the last 25 years where you couldn’t point to volatility. I think what’s potentially different right now is the fact that it’s coming from all angles. It’s that sense of “everything, everywhere, all at once.”Stephen Cooper (04:50) The uncertainty people face is economic, geopolitical, and technological all at the same time—rapidly changing and rapidly entering people’s feeds. This is dampening consumer confidence, creating uncertainty about the future, and impacting how they interact with our category. This volatility is driving the trends we find ourselves discussing.Stephen Cooper (05:19) Take premiumization, for example. It remains important and is one of the main growth drivers in our industry, but it is slowing down. It is performing at a slower rate than what we’ve been used to in recent years. Economic instability is reducing discretionary spending and impacting our category at an outsized rate compared to other FMCG categories.Stephen Cooper (05:48) Then there is moderation. You’ll hear about moderation several times over the next two days. We all know it’s a thing, but it’s more nuanced than the headlines suggest. The data tells us it’s not a case of a mass group of people suddenly exiting the category; they are just finding strategies to be more intentional. “Zebra striping” or temporary abstinence is more the order of the day.Stephen Cooper (06:17) One impact of this is that repertoires are narrowing. On a particular occasion or over a period of time, the number of brands or categories people engage with is shrinking. For a younger consumer, it used to be around 3.5 categories per occasion; it’s now 2.5. We are seeing this as a reaction to those prior forces, alongside socialization shifts and on-trade headwinds.Stephen Cooper (07:13) None of this is a completely new phenomenon. What is different is the compound effect—everything happening at once. Looking at that long-term IWSR chart, I think we’re moving from a phase defined by “premiumization and less but better” to a period of greater “intentionality” in consumer choices.Stephen Cooper (07:42) The way people interact with this category is increasingly not about default behavior. It’s not slumping on the sofa and reaching for a beer; it’s not clocking off work and heading to the pub; it’s not just grabbing a bottle because you’re going to a friend’s house. People are checking out of those default behaviors and checking into intentional moments.Stephen Cooper (08:35) How do you stand out as a thoughtful choice when that is what people are looking for? This is where macro forces provide avenues to understand what people care about. People are increasingly looking for ways to exert agency and control. There is so little in this world they can control, so they grasp for things they can.Stephen Cooper (09:04) This is where we see things like analog culture, the “presence economy,” or “friction-maxing” coming in. People are developing vinyl collections again, buying digital cameras, or learning how to make the perfect Old Fashioned. These are things people can tacitly control and own. Linked to that is the value of self-determination.Stephen Cooper (09:32) In a world where typical development paths aren’t as available, how do people signal progression? How do they build their own path? To use the Old Fashioned analogy: maybe it’s less about making the “perfect” one and more about making your Old Fashioned, your way. Defining your own success is what drives people today.Stephen Cooper (10:02) Connection and socializing remain the bedrock of this category. This is incredibly important—perhaps even more so in the disconnected world we experience now. Our ability to facilitate people coming together and forming communities is vital.Stephen Cooper (10:50) Then there is tradition and nostalgia. When the future seems uncertain or scary, the past becomes a bedrock where people find stability and trust. What’s changed is that nostalgia is becoming less time-bound. People aren’t just chasing a “90s aesthetic”; they are seeking a place of safety and security.Stephen Cooper (11:47) Holistic well-being is also evolving. It’s no longer just about vital signs or mental health; it’s moving toward a sense of satisfaction, enjoyment, and fulfillment. Finally, there is intentional spending. It’s not just about the value of what you’re spending money on, but the values that sit behind the brand.Stephen Cooper (12:17) As I wrap up, I want to offer a few final points. In this period of intentionality, the opportunity is to stand out, not simply fit in. Do not chase something you are not. Use your brand or business as the lens to understand which trends to lean into and how to leverage them.Stephen Cooper (13:16) Always balance the long-term with the short-term. Don’t simply focus on the waves; understand the tide. When using short-term trends, my advice is to only put in what you can afford to lose, because they aren’t guaranteed to stay around.Stephen Cooper (13:45) Also, bear in mind “counterculture.” You don’t always need to swim with the tide. You can react to trends by resisting them or being the antidote to them. You can move against them, or you can make your own waves. Especially for this audience, there is the opportunity not just to follow trends, but to understand what trends your brand can create.