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On-Premise trends improve in latest 4 weeks through mid-June, despite shift of Father’s Day and slowing off-premise trends

On-premise trends improved during the latest 4 weeks ending June 14th, with traffic down 1.6% vs down 2% for the last 12 weeks (and down 2.7% for the prior 4 week period). The improvement is an encouraging sign as the last week of the period was negatively impacted by the shift of Father’s Day to the following week, which will bolster the next period.  YTD traffic is still weak at down 1.2% vs down 0.7% in 2014.  Higher sequential gas prices might be an incremental headwind for the lower and middle income consumers but overall higher confidence driven by an improved job outlook is likely playing a role in the marginal improvement in trends.

Share changes between alcohol beverage categories :  Beer unit share is down 0.8% in the latest 4 weeks, wine share was flat and spirits share was up 0.8%, similar to the 12 week trend.

Total Alcohol:  Total alcohol units sold was -1.9% during the 4 weeks, a decent improvement from -3.0% seen during the latest 12 weeks, and generally in line with the -1.8% from 2014. The on-premise channel displayed this improvement during a period when off-premise sales have deteriorated.

Beer:  Beer unit growth was -3.7% during the 4 weeks through June 14th an improvement from the -4.6% 12 week trend.

Beer Segments:  Craft’s y/y share gains slowed significantly from the +1.8 gain in 2014 to +1.0 during the latest 12 weeks, but crept up slightly to +1.1 during the latest 4 weeks;  Premium Light’s y/y share has moderated from -1.9 during 2014 to -1.4 during the latest 12 weeks and -1.3 points on the 4 weeks; Imports’ y/y share loss improved from -0.3 points during 2014 to -0.1 during the latest 12 but softened slightly to -0.2 during the 4 weeks;  and Cider’s y/y share gain slowed fairly significantly from +0.5 during 2014 to +0.2 during the latest 12 weeks and +0.2 during latest 4 weeks.

Overall Spirits:  Spirits unit growth was +0.1% during the latest 4 weeks, a solid improvement from the -1.0% seen during the latest 12 weeks and slightly above the -0.3% seen during the full year 2014.

Spirits Categories: Segments gaining y/y share of spirits during the 4 weeks are Tequila, Irish, Bourbons/Blends, and Brandy/Cognac, coming at the expense of Rum, Cordials, and Vodka.

Craft Spirits:  Domestic Craft Spirits continue to take market share at an accelerated pace.

Overall Wine:  Wine volumes were -1.7% during latest 4 weeks, a decent improvement from the -3.2% seen the latest 12 weeks though still below -0.9% from full year 2014.

Wine Varietals: YTD, the largest y/y volume share gainers have been Prosecco, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, Red Blend, Moscato, and Sauvignon Blanc, while the largest share donors were Merlot, Chardonnay, Riesling, and Zinfandel.

Source: Guest Metrics