October 2013 Control State results: sales up 5.7%

During October, nine-liter spirits case sales in the control states were up 5.7% compared to sales during the same period last year. Rolling-twelve month volumes grew at 1.9%, up slightly from September’s 1.8%. Alabama, Montgomery County Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Vermont reported monthly growth rates exceeding their twelve month trends.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 9.4% during October while trending at 4.8% during the past twelve months. Alabama, Montgomery County Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont reported growth rates that exceeded their twelve month trends.

Price/Mix for October was 3.7%, up from September’s 2.3%.

October’s Control State spirits sales appear robust. However, consider:

• Michigan, with 16% of the Control States’ spirits and dollars volumes, reported five weeks of sales during this October against four weeks last year, artificially inflating sales and skewing Control States results. Michigan had seven more selling days during this year’s October than last year’s.
• Utah, with 2% of Control State spirits volume, reported five weeks of sales against four weeks last year: there were 6 more selling days during this year’s October.
• After normalizing nine-liter spirits case sales for Michigan and Utah, October’s nine-liter case growth is 1.5%, and rolling-twelve month volumes show an increase of 1.5%. Likewise, after normalizing shelf dollars, October’s control states shelf dollar growth rate is 4.7%, and its twelve-month trend is 4.5%.
• October’s normalized Price/Mix is 3.2%.

During October, Irish Whiskey, with 0.9% share of the control states spirits market, was the fastest growing category with 14.1% growth reported and a twelve month growth trend of 13.8%. Vodka, with 33% share, grew during the same periods at 4.7% and 2.0%. During October Brandy/Cognac, Canadian Whiskey, Cocktails, Cordials, Domestic Whiskey, Gin, Irish Whiskey, Rum, Scotch Whiskey, Tequila, and Vodka grew at rates exceeding their twelve-month trends.

October’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate fell 0.6%. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Utah, Mississippi, Montgomery County Maryland, and Wyoming reported -3.9%, -4.0%, 30.0%, 0.8%, 7.1%, and 2.3%, respectively. October’s rolling-twelve month wine volume growth, 0.9%, is down from September’s 1.5%.