At Bar Convent London, George Michie, Brand Ambassador, took us inside The Macallan (Edrington) and shared its compelling analysis of the dominant consumer trend shaping hospitality: Moderation with Expectation. Using the latest CGA data, George breaks down a major paradox in consumer behavior. While overall footfall is down 43% and 63% of consumers are drinking less, the average spend is up for 33% of guests, and drink quality is up 43%. In this session, George explains why 64% of consumers would rather have one or two high-quality drinks than three to five average ones for the same price.
George Michie Presentation Transcript
George Michie (00:03) In December, I was standing in a very nice bar in London when a couple walked in and sat on the stools next to me. He ordered a bottle of sparkling water, and she ordered a £220 cocktail. As that cocktail was being created—with just enough theater to show confidence rather than showmanship—they leaned in.
George Michie (00:29) They wanted to know how this serve came about. They wanted to know what brands were in it, what spirits were used, and just as equally, what weren’t spirits. Of course, their phones came out and they took photos of the build. They took photos of the bottle of The Macallan 25-Year-Old Sherry Oak next to the drink. (That wasn’t a plug, that doesn’t count. Yeah, indeed.)
George Michie (00:58) And then the drink landed. They took their time with it, taking measured sips between them. Then they paid and they left. Twenty-five minutes, half an hour, one drink, one moment—no rush, no excess, just a memory captured. That single drink, for me, captures one of the biggest drinks trends of 2026: moderation with expectation.
George Michie (01:26) My name, as you saw, is George Michie, and I’m the Brand Ambassador for The Macallan. Another thing to mention is that we’re going to talk about one dominant trend, and it’s a trend that has been talked about again and again today, so I apologize if there is some repetition.
George Michie (01:53) Before my current ambassadorial role, I used to run a whisky club in Soho. I was there for five years, so there were a lot of tastings and consumer events. One thing became very clear: there was one big trend, and that was that drinkers changed. You found younger drinkers, more female drinkers, and more international drinkers.
George Michie (02:23) On the whole, they were actually drinking less. Behind the bar, we had the £4 shelf of drams, the £5 shelf, the £6 shelf, and so on. What we found is that even though people were drinking less, they were aiming higher up the shelf when they did drink. They were aiming higher literally as well as figuratively. That couple in the bar pretty much sums up the whole story for me.
George Michie (02:53) Of course, they could well have only been having one drink that night because they were late to meet Mama and Papa to watch The Nutcracker. Who knows? But what actually changed? Well, CGA data tells us that people are drinking less at a ratio of 63%, with footfall down 43%. That sounds bad, but when people do go out, behavior has shifted.
George Michie (03:23) Average spend is up for 33% of consumers, and drink quality is up 43%. There are a few reasons for this. Health awareness is higher than it’s ever been—sleep matters, and tomorrow morning matters. Additionally, the cost of living has made spending more deliberate. Drinking isn’t casual anymore; it’s considered.
George Michie (03:51) You might go out once a month instead of three times. That could well be celebration-led. You might decide, “In a fortnight, it’s Tristan’s birthday, and we’ll go somewhere quite nice then.” The “at-home” experience has improved, too. You can drink very well at home with good bottles, good food, proper glassware, and people copying notorious foodies on Instagram. So, when people do go out, it has to be worth it.
George Michie (04:21) You want to be up in the morning for your Pilates and your Jiu-Jitsu (not “Shih Tzu,” that’s a dog). Interestingly, younger consumers are still the most likely to have had their last drink out in the on-trade, which tells us that this isn’t withdrawal—it’s intention. How does this behavior show up? People choose venues more carefully; their choice is edited.
George Michie (04:49) Instead of several average drinks, people are choosing one prestige one. When asked what they’d prefer—even if the final bill was going to be the same—64% chose one or two quality drinks over three to five average ones. One in five (20%, quick math) said they would rather have a single prestige drink than five ordinary ones for the same price.
George Michie (05:19) You also see “alternating”—Steve spoke about it. You might have one alcoholic beverage, then switch to a non-alcoholic one, then go back again; it’s called “zebra drinking.” No-and-low alcohol penetration is still relatively low at 11%, but it’s the fastest-growing category in the on-trade. You’re also seeing smaller serves and mini-cocktails. You might see a Martini list where, in the corner, you can get the exact same drink but smaller.
George Michie (05:47) Mindful indulgence is calm, controlled, and deliberate. We see the “conscious trade-up.” You might have one glass of Champagne instead of a bottle of Prosecco. You might go to one destination bar instead of a three-bar crawl. That destination isn’t always a prestige bar; it could be space-led, like a concert hall or a bookshop.
George Michie (06:14) The shared interest and the elevated drink complete the moment, as opposed to driving it. The key shift—and it matters across the entire industry—is that nothing is automatic anymore. No brand gets poured by default. Every drink has to earn its place, and every price has to feel justified. However, not everyone wants the same thing. Some guests want theater and ritual, while others want detail, process, and the quiet nod.
George Michie (06:44) No two guests are the same, no two outlets are the same, and no two brands are the same. Balenciaga isn’t Dior; Selfridges isn’t Harrods. Both are luxury, but they are different with a different clientele. The same logic applies across wine, spirits, and now increasingly non-alcoholic drinks. Selecting the right SKUs and suggesting the right serves for the right clientele is vital.
George Michie (07:13) This shift puts the on-trade in a very powerful position. You curate, create, frame, and translate. There is lots to work on: reputation, the trust before the pour, the atmosphere, the room, the sound, and the pace. Selecting the right SKUs means having an edited list and back bar—depth where it matters, and clarity everywhere else.
George Michie (07:42) You’ve got the experience, the menus, the rituals, and the ability to graciously hold the room with confidence, consistency, and calm. And the team—vitally, the team. Knowledge without noise, and the ability to graciously hold that room. What brands can do to support this is quite significant as well.
George Michie (08:11) It all raises expectations. The role isn’t now simply visibility or—dare I say, as The Macallan Brand Ambassador—allocation. It’s usefulness. Education matters more than ever—not just facts, but context. We need to help teams understand why something tastes like it does, where it sits, and who it’s right for, giving the person behind the bar the confidence to recommend.
George Michie (08:41) Brands also need to stay true to their DNA. In a world where nothing is automatic, clarity wins. Perspective matters: the right SKUs, the right serve, and the right setting for the right guests. When this works, everyone wins. The outlet wins through a better rate of sale, higher value per pour, and more repeat custom.
George Michie (09:09) The guest wins through a meaningful experience and confidence in their choice of quality over quantity. The brand wins through trust from the consumer and the account. When I look at the drinks trends in 2026, the picture is clear: people are drinking less, but they are asking more of what they choose.
George Michie (09:37) This isn’t the only trend shaping the industry, but for premium brands and much of the on-trade, it may be the most commercially significant one. In a world with fewer moments, the things that continue to earn a place are the ones that last: the memories.
George Michie (10:03) Memories are built through experience—from the moment you open the door, to the walk to the bar, to the person behind the bar and the unique serve they give you. This is supported by the knowledge they’ve gained from a brand with a strong DNA that has educated and supported them. Thanks for tuning in.