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June 2013 Control State results: sales down 6.4%

July 24, 2013

During June, nine-liter spirits case sales in the control states were down 6.4% compared to same period last year. Rolling-twelve month reported volumes grew at 1.6%, down from May’s 2.5%. No control jurisdiction reported a monthly growth rate that exceeded its twelve month trend. Control state spirits shelf dollars fell 3.4% during June while trending at 4.5% during the past twelve months. Mississippi, Utah, and Wyoming reported growth rates exceeding their twelve month trends.  Price/Mix for June fell to 3.0% from May’s 3.2%.
June’s Control State spirits sales were soft because:
– The June, 2013, calendar has five Sundays compared to four last year. Retail outlets in six control jurisdictions—Alabama, Montana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Utah, West Virginia—are closed on Sundays.
– June, 2012, had five Fridays compared to four during June, 2013.
– Pennsylvania, with 16% of the Control States’ spirits and dollars volumes, reported four weeks of sales this June against five weeks last year, artificially deflating sales and skewing Control States results. Pennsylvania had six fewer selling days–18% fewer-during this year’s June compared to last year’s. New Hampshire, with 5% of Control State spirits volume, reported four weeks of sales against five weeks the previous year: there were 6 fewer selling days–18% fewer–during this year’s June. Overall, there were 17 fewer selling days in the control states during June. After normalizing nine-liter spirits case sales for Pennsylvania’s and New Hampshire’s reporting anomalies, June’s nine-liter case growth is -1.7%, and rolling-twelve month volumes show an increase of 2.0%. Likewise, after normalizing shelf dollars, June’s control states shelf dollar growth rate is 1.3%, and its twelve-month trend is 4.9%.
– June’s normalized Price/Mix is 3.7%.

During June, Irish Whiskey, with 0.8% share of the control states spirits market, was the fastest growing category with 3.3% growth reported and a twelve month growth trend of 15.4%. Vodka, with 34% share, grew during the same periods at -6.0% and 2.5%. During June no category grew at a rate that exceeded its twelve-month trend.
June’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate fell 13.1%. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Utah, Mississippi, Montgomery County Maryland, and Wyoming reported -16.2%, -17.3%, 4.7%, -4.9%, -0.2%, and -0.1%, respectively. June’s rolling-twelve month wine volume growth, 2.0%, is down from May’s 4.4%.

 

[lightTable]
  9L Cases CM % Chg Shelf $ CM % Chg Price/Mix Control States

Total Control States

-6.4

-3.4

3.0%

 

Central Region

-7.7

-4.4

3.3%

IA, MD, MI, OH, PA, WV

NE Region

-11.6

-6.7

4.9%

ME, NH, VT

-3.7

-0.9

2.8%

ID, MT, OR, UT, WY

Southern Region

-4.0

-1.8

2.2%

AL, MS, NC, VA
[/lightTable]  

Source: NABCA